Truly remarkable numbers from Rwanda

it is an increasingly well known fact that Rwanda today has the highest proportion of female civil servants in the world. 

Life expectancy climbed from 28 years in 1994 to 56 years in 2012.

In June 2012, 108 113 people with advanced HIV disease in Rwanda were receiving antiretroviral therapy, making Rwanda (along with much richer Botswana) one of only two countries in sub-Saharan Africa to achieve the United Nations goal of universal access to antiretroviral therapy.

As of June 2012, 90.6% of the population was enrolled, while another 7% are covered by civil service, military, or private insurance plans.

Rwanda was among the first countries to integrate the rotavirus, pneumococcal, and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines into its national immunisation system, achieving greater than 93% coverage for each of nine vaccines (rotavirus data are not yet available). This includes 93.2% coverage for all three doses of the HPV vaccine among eligible girls in 2011; by contrast, less than a quarter of eligible girls in the United States have received a complete series.

Mortality associated with HIV disease fell by 78.4% (the greatest reduction in the world during that timeframe) and mortality from tuberculosis by 77.1% (the greatest decline in Africa). From 2005 to 2011, deaths from malaria dropped by 87.3%. Between 2000 and 2010 the country’s maternal mortality ratio fell by 59.5%. The probability that a child dies by the age of 5 years decreased by 70.4% between 2000 and 2011—falling below half of the regional average and approaching the global mean (fig 2⇓).

Life expectancy (had) remained the lowest in the world from 1989 to 1997. 

The authors credit the central government and the Ministry of Health with much of this success.  I think this is right.  Rwanda serves as a strong counterpoint to those who would argue that socioeconomic factors affect governance and not vice versa.  The causality runs both ways.

It is also interesting to note the association between that first fact (Rwanda's high proportion of female civil servants) and Rwanda's highly effective and honest civil service.

Approaches to political reform

Daniel Triesman, on the three main approaches to political reform used in 1990s Russia:

The first approach might be called the cavalry charge. Plunging headlong at the enemy, the reformers sought a breakthrough by force of will, speed, and concentration. Such tactics worked wonders in postwar Japan, where General MacArthur, U.S. troops at his back, broke up the business empires of the prewar zaibatsu and imposed a democratic constitution. With similar cavalry attacks, Ataturk carved a modern Turkish state out of the Ottoman ruins, closing religious schools, suppressing opposition parties, and imposing European legal codes. General Pinochet crushed the Chilean labor unions to impose macroeconomic stability. Cavalry charges make for rousing theater and— sometimes— stunning victories. They make less sense when the valley one must charge down is surrounded by cannons. 

The second approach— the war of attrition— involves neither speed nor surprise, nor overwhelming force, just a patient search for incremental gains. What victories occur result from painstaking preparation and periodic probing of the opposition’s defenses. Reformers exploit moments when the opponent is distracted to make technocratic advances, which add up over time to more substantial change. In such a war, persistence is key. “Many of our decrees were overturned three or four times,” Chubais later recalled of 1993, “but we would remake them phrased slightly differently.” The war of attrition can work well when time is on the reformers’ side. Often it is not. 

Finally, reformers may seek progress through creative recombination— dividing and conquering their opponents, coopting some by designing reforms in ways that benefit them, while isolating others, who can then be crushed or ignored. Reformers help potential beneficiaries to organize, building a support coalition. Victories, in this approach, are always relative and costly, and to keep reforms moving the reformers must be ready to make sudden turns, striking out against their erstwhile allies. The timing of such reversals can be crucial. Too soon, and the first reform crumbles; too late, and the reformers end up hostage to their creations.

That's from The Return, his terrific, narrative-busting book on Russian politics of the past 30 years.

On free will

This sums up the argument against free will quite nicely:

The problem of free will, of course, is that we understand that we are physical entities: specifically, the brain is the physical basis of mind, and the brain, as a physical system, is not exempt from the physical laws that determine everything else that goes on in the universe; neither are our thoughts and actions exempt. So the problem of free will is simply this: how do we reconcile our conscious experience of freedom of the will with the sheer and simple fact that we are physical entities existing in a universe that consists of particles acting in fields of force?

The rest of the article is interesting as well.  

Economic growth and political stability

This statement--from the International Crisis Group's November 2012 report on the Cote d'Ivoire--seems wrong.  Not 100% wrong perhaps, but deeply flawed.  

The clear priority given to the promotion of strong economic growth to reduce unemployment and poverty is welcome, but it cannot be a substitute for political gestures dedicated to national reconciliation.

Perhaps economic growth cannot fully "substitute" for "political gestures" towards reconciliation, but I imagine that it is by far the more important of the two.  I don't mean to understand the importance of political gestures, but I believe that statements such as these can grossly overstate their importance, and that this is a flaw in many discussion of IR theory.  

File this under, "When you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail."  

A glance at economic growth in the Cote d'Ivoire in recent years

An overview of the post-colonial era, via Wikipedia:

Almost 70% of the Ivorian people are engaged in some form of agricultural activity. GDP per capita grew 82% in the 1960s, reaching a peak growth of 360% in the 1970s. But this proved unsustainable and it shrank by 28% in the 1980s and a further 22% in the 1990s.

Growth has been basically static since 2000, when the civil war broke out.  The economy grew steadily (if unspectacularly) from 2008-2010, but shrank by 4.7% in 2011 as the civil war increased in intensity.  

Growth accelerated rapidly in 2012 as the political situation stabilized.  According a government spokesman in October 2012, the economy was expected to grow by 8.6% in 2012 and 9% in 2013.  The government's proposed budget for 2013 was expected to be up by 17% over its 2012 budget.  

The Cote d'Ivoire's main exports are cocoa, cashews, coffee, rubber and oil.  Lots of other interesting facts in this Christian Science Monitor article.  

Book reviews

This Is How You Lose Her by Junot Diaz - This was terrific.  I bought it in Berlin and finished it on the flight home.  It was the first book that I've ever read by Junot Diaz and I came away very impressed.  It's a collection of short stories centered around Diaz's alter-ego, Yunior, discussing relationships and the DR to NY/NJ immigrant experience.  I'm not sure that I've ever read a collection of short stories that I couldn't put down.  The voices are so distinct and the characters so fleshed out despite short length of the pieces.  I will likely read the Oscar Wao book now as well when I get a chance.  Highly recommended!

The Spy Who Came In from the Cold by John le Carré - I read this during my recent Berlin trip and enjoyed it. It was intelligent, interesting, and gripping at points. Lots of tricky plot twists, and he hides the ball cleverly enough that you're never quite sure what is going on and what will happen next. It never totally caught me though, and, while I was intrigued, I would have been okay putting it down and never knowing how it ended. And while I enjoyed it, I wasn't sad for it to end, nor excited to read le Carré's other George Smily novels.

Berlin Travel Notes

Spent the last week in Berlin.  A few thoughts about the city:

• As expected, Berlin was pleasantly un-crowded.  Traffic, even in downtown and highly commercial areas, was remarkably light.  The U-Bahn metro was never jam packed, and it was usually possibly for our group of four to sit together on the trains.  We never experienced a problem finding a table for dinner.  
• Technologically, Berlin seems a bit behind Washington and New York.  After reading the Economist write that Scandinavian cities are living in thetechnological future, I was hoping to find Berlin in a similarly advanced state.  In fact, it felt more retro than futuristic.  Few restaurants accepted credit cards; the taxis did not have GPS; and smart phones and tablets and electronics were less noticeable than in the U.S.  At one point, I spent over half an hour in a busy commercial neighborhood looking (unsuccessfully) for an ATM that would dispense cash to a non-German card.  On the whole, I can’t recall any instances of technology that struck me as more advanced than what I would find in DC. 
• The two English-language bookstores that I visited—Shakespeare & Sons and St. George’s—were well curated and had ver nice ambiences.  
• The crosswalk “Walk” and “Don’t Walk” figurines wear fedora hats. 
• The food was not great.  Our group kept settling for Italian meals, which were a mixed bag.  This was probably not a great decision, and we probably should have taken advantage of the many Asian (particularly Vietnamese and Thai) options.  The two German restaurants that we tried were disappointing.  I did enjoy the currywurst more than expected; some of the currywurst stands make their own ketchup and mayonnaise.  We also found excellent sausages at street markets. 
•  I was surprised by the lack of ethnic minorities.  Granted, we lodged in the gentrified neighborhood of Prenzlauer Berg, but the other neighborhoods that I saw were not particularly diverse either.  Even at crowded metro transfer points—normally a good melting pot—the population was strikingly white.
• Berlin enjoys terrific social capital.  It was a bit remarkable to arrive in a country, not speak a word of the language, and yet never have to worry about getting ripped off.  Taxis to and from the airport cost less than we had been told.  Headphones were given out for free at museums with no mechanism for tracking or keeping people from making off with them.  There are no turnstiles at metro stops; the authorities simply rely on social capital and occasional patrolling of metro cars to police the system.  We did not see a metro patrol our entire trip, but we nevertheless paid for and stamped our tickets.  
• Most striking of all was the friendliness and good nature of the Berliners we encountered.  Despite our total lack of German language ability, we did not have a single unpleasant encounter with a Berlin worker.  They were uniformly polite, friendly and helpful.  No one seemed depressed or even upset to be at work.  Such an experience would be unimaginable in France or even in the U.S.  I can’t help but wonder if high employment has something to do with this.  Is it possible that the high employment rate allows people to more readily quit jobs that make them unhappy and find a more adequate replacement?