Economic growth and political stability

This statement--from the International Crisis Group's November 2012 report on the Cote d'Ivoire--seems wrong.  Not 100% wrong perhaps, but deeply flawed.  

The clear priority given to the promotion of strong economic growth to reduce unemployment and poverty is welcome, but it cannot be a substitute for political gestures dedicated to national reconciliation.

Perhaps economic growth cannot fully "substitute" for "political gestures" towards reconciliation, but I imagine that it is by far the more important of the two.  I don't mean to understand the importance of political gestures, but I believe that statements such as these can grossly overstate their importance, and that this is a flaw in many discussion of IR theory.  

File this under, "When you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail."  

A glance at economic growth in the Cote d'Ivoire in recent years

An overview of the post-colonial era, via Wikipedia:

Almost 70% of the Ivorian people are engaged in some form of agricultural activity. GDP per capita grew 82% in the 1960s, reaching a peak growth of 360% in the 1970s. But this proved unsustainable and it shrank by 28% in the 1980s and a further 22% in the 1990s.

Growth has been basically static since 2000, when the civil war broke out.  The economy grew steadily (if unspectacularly) from 2008-2010, but shrank by 4.7% in 2011 as the civil war increased in intensity.  

Growth accelerated rapidly in 2012 as the political situation stabilized.  According a government spokesman in October 2012, the economy was expected to grow by 8.6% in 2012 and 9% in 2013.  The government's proposed budget for 2013 was expected to be up by 17% over its 2012 budget.  

The Cote d'Ivoire's main exports are cocoa, cashews, coffee, rubber and oil.  Lots of other interesting facts in this Christian Science Monitor article.  

Book reviews

This Is How You Lose Her by Junot Diaz - This was terrific.  I bought it in Berlin and finished it on the flight home.  It was the first book that I've ever read by Junot Diaz and I came away very impressed.  It's a collection of short stories centered around Diaz's alter-ego, Yunior, discussing relationships and the DR to NY/NJ immigrant experience.  I'm not sure that I've ever read a collection of short stories that I couldn't put down.  The voices are so distinct and the characters so fleshed out despite short length of the pieces.  I will likely read the Oscar Wao book now as well when I get a chance.  Highly recommended!

The Spy Who Came In from the Cold by John le Carré - I read this during my recent Berlin trip and enjoyed it. It was intelligent, interesting, and gripping at points. Lots of tricky plot twists, and he hides the ball cleverly enough that you're never quite sure what is going on and what will happen next. It never totally caught me though, and, while I was intrigued, I would have been okay putting it down and never knowing how it ended. And while I enjoyed it, I wasn't sad for it to end, nor excited to read le Carré's other George Smily novels.

Berlin Travel Notes

Spent the last week in Berlin.  A few thoughts about the city:

• As expected, Berlin was pleasantly un-crowded.  Traffic, even in downtown and highly commercial areas, was remarkably light.  The U-Bahn metro was never jam packed, and it was usually possibly for our group of four to sit together on the trains.  We never experienced a problem finding a table for dinner.  
• Technologically, Berlin seems a bit behind Washington and New York.  After reading the Economist write that Scandinavian cities are living in thetechnological future, I was hoping to find Berlin in a similarly advanced state.  In fact, it felt more retro than futuristic.  Few restaurants accepted credit cards; the taxis did not have GPS; and smart phones and tablets and electronics were less noticeable than in the U.S.  At one point, I spent over half an hour in a busy commercial neighborhood looking (unsuccessfully) for an ATM that would dispense cash to a non-German card.  On the whole, I can’t recall any instances of technology that struck me as more advanced than what I would find in DC. 
• The two English-language bookstores that I visited—Shakespeare & Sons and St. George’s—were well curated and had ver nice ambiences.  
• The crosswalk “Walk” and “Don’t Walk” figurines wear fedora hats. 
• The food was not great.  Our group kept settling for Italian meals, which were a mixed bag.  This was probably not a great decision, and we probably should have taken advantage of the many Asian (particularly Vietnamese and Thai) options.  The two German restaurants that we tried were disappointing.  I did enjoy the currywurst more than expected; some of the currywurst stands make their own ketchup and mayonnaise.  We also found excellent sausages at street markets. 
•  I was surprised by the lack of ethnic minorities.  Granted, we lodged in the gentrified neighborhood of Prenzlauer Berg, but the other neighborhoods that I saw were not particularly diverse either.  Even at crowded metro transfer points—normally a good melting pot—the population was strikingly white.
• Berlin enjoys terrific social capital.  It was a bit remarkable to arrive in a country, not speak a word of the language, and yet never have to worry about getting ripped off.  Taxis to and from the airport cost less than we had been told.  Headphones were given out for free at museums with no mechanism for tracking or keeping people from making off with them.  There are no turnstiles at metro stops; the authorities simply rely on social capital and occasional patrolling of metro cars to police the system.  We did not see a metro patrol our entire trip, but we nevertheless paid for and stamped our tickets.  
• Most striking of all was the friendliness and good nature of the Berliners we encountered.  Despite our total lack of German language ability, we did not have a single unpleasant encounter with a Berlin worker.  They were uniformly polite, friendly and helpful.  No one seemed depressed or even upset to be at work.  Such an experience would be unimaginable in France or even in the U.S.  I can’t help but wonder if high employment has something to do with this.  Is it possible that the high employment rate allows people to more readily quit jobs that make them unhappy and find a more adequate replacement?  

Why government health policy fails

Austin Frakt links to a qualitative study on why evidence-based policy so often loses out:

I’m pleased to write that an ungated PDF of “‘Developing Good Taste in Evidence’: Facilitators of and Hindrances to Evidence-Informed Health Policymaking in State Government,” by Christopher Jewell and Lisa Bero, is available. Anybody interested in why evidence often fails to penetrate the policymaking process should read it, though it is depressing. Here are some quotes, some of which are from interviews conducted by the authors:

• One official observed that in assessing the effectiveness of a new medical procedure, “I just did exactly what . . . everyone . . . is hoping I’m not. I talked to my brother-in-law and I Googled it.”
• In reference to medical malpractice reform, one official discussed the problem with having a legislature with a large contingent of trial lawyers: “Right now you’ve got a bunch of people who could care less about the evidence unless they can manipulate it. . . . They know where their economic interests are . . . and that will trump any kind of evidence.”
• “And you can always find somebody on the committee that’s had some bad experience and so they’re perfectly willing to tell their story, and then fifteen lobbyists stand up and talk about how different people have been harmed by this sort of legislation. . . . And they aren’t studies . . . the lobbyists even lie . . . I mean they make up stories that don’t exist.”
• An effort to institute a system to use encrypted state health data to analyze variations in medical practice—an issue that does not affect consumers directly—met with significant opposition on the grounds that “even if you don’t identify the individual, you somehow have violated the person because you were looking at the medical record.”
• “If the leadership in your governing body believes that government should have as limited a role as possible in providing health services to your state population, then it doesn’t matter what you say. . . . They don’t care about evidence because they don’t believe that government should have a role in providing health care.”

Will insurers avoid the ACA's exchanges?

An insurer can choose not to offer any products in the exchanges--the do nothing scenario... It could also be prudent to stay out of the exchanges for a year or two, and then join and offer products after the dust has settled.  

From a Milliman analysis of "Ten critical considerations for health insurance plans evaluating participation in public exchange markets."  Consideration #10, on why plans might want to stay out of the exchanges, is of particular interest.  It mentions the possibility that the exchanges will attract "a population with unknown, and potentially unfavorable, risk characteristics."  This scenario would likely drive health populations away from the exchanges and lead to adverse selection within the exchange, a big worry for ACA supporters.

The Libertarian Vice

Excellent post from Tyler Cowen about the vices in libertarian philosophy:

The libertarian vice is to assume that the quality of government is fixed.  The libertarian also argues that the quality of government is typically low, and this is usually the bone of contention, but that is not the point I wish to consider.  Often that dispute is a red herring...

But sometimes governments do a pretty good job, even if you like me are generally skeptical of government.  The Finnish government has supported superb architecture.  The Swedes have made a good go at a welfare state.  The Interstate Highway System in the U.S. was a high-return investment.  In the area of foreign policy, we have done a good job juggling the China-Taiwan relationship.  Or how about the Aswan Dam for Egypt?  You might contest these particular examples but I assure you there are many others. 

I think this first sentence describes me very well:

It is possible to agree with the positive claims of libertarians about the virtues of markets but still think that improving the quality of government is the central task before us.  One could love markets yet be some version of a modern liberal rather than a classical liberal.

These posts about the liberal vice and the conservative vice are very good as well.